1) The next 10-20 years will witness the rise of much of the rest of the world, specifically China, India, Brazil, Russia and smaller but important developing countries like Turkey and South Africa. By 2025, China will be the second most important country in the world and India may well be third.
2) Western and Eastern cultures will be combined in many ways. China will be westernized and modernized, but in its own Chinese way. Same with India and every other important eastern culture. And modernization is not westernization, although they are related developments.
3) Many developing countries will not move immediately from totalitarian regimes to democracies, in fact most will move to a middle ground, much like what exists in China today. There are benefits to centrally planned economies. When China wants to knock down a town and build a city, it does it. There is a lot of power in China's model and many will emulate it given its success.
4) Eventually, developing countries and the developed world will move to democracy, but it won't happen quickly and it won't always happen easily. This includes China.
5) America is likely to remain the biggest economy and the most powerful country in the world for some time to come, but it will continue to lose power on a relative basis. And it will need to adopt new tactics and strategies to ensure it's economy and national security remain intact. It cannot continue to go it alone. That strategy, the Bush doctrine, has failed badly and given America's weakening hand, it should be put to rest for good.
6) America is still supreme in three important, possibly the most important, areas; higher education, diversity and demographics, and creativity and ideas. These three pillars are interrelated and depend entirely on each other. Lose one and you'll eventually lose them all.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
A VC: The Post American World
Posted by Vijaychandran Veerachandran at 10:27 AM